When Does Barry Surpass Hammerin' Hank

I have been researching this subject for the last few weeks and going back and forth between will he or won't he do it? My initial feelings were that with the weak SF Giants lineup (leading to Barry breaking the walks and intentional walks records) and Barry's recent injury history, that he will not succeed in passing Hank Aaron and become the All Time Home Run Champion. I am not alone in this feeling as PECOTA projects Barry to hit only 18 HR's during the 2007 season. ESPN Baseball Contributors weighed in on the topic also. As you can see from the article 4 of the 14 writers stated they felt Bonds would not accrue 22 HR's this season. My feelings felt more validated when I saw I was not alone. I then went back to my research and crunched some numbers and came up with the inevitable that, Barry will break the HR record on August 17, 2007 in Florida vs. the Marlins.

After looking at numerous items, the valid points were games played, at bats per home run(AB/HR), home run pct(HR%), at bats per game (AB/GM), and walks. Bonds' first full major league season was 1987 and since that season, there have only been three seasons in which he has not participated in 130 games. The three seasons Bonds did not partake in more than 130 games was the strike season of 1994, the torn triceps tendon injury in 1999 and the knee surgery of 2005. So as much discussion as there has been about his fragility; over his career Bonds has played in 85% of the games in his career and 76% since 2000. The following table addresses the next variables of interest AB/HR and HR%.

Year		AB/HR		HR%
2000		9.8		10.21
2001		6.5		15.34
2002		8.8		12.06
2003		8.7		11.54
2004		8.3		11.41
2005		8.4		11.90
2006		14.1		7.08
Career		12.9		7.72

What this table cleary shows us is that over his 21 year career, Barry homered 1 in every 13 ABs and since 2000, that number is significantly lower.

Over his career, Bonds has averaged 3.3 AB/GM. Since 2000, Bonds has participated in 860 games accumulating 2531 at bats which translates to 2.94 AB/GM. During that seven year span, Bonds averaged 362 AB/season hitting 289 Home Runs or 1 every 8.76 AB. How do all these numbers give us the date? I used the following formula [(AB/HR x HR needed)/(AB/GM)] to calculate the game that the event will occur. By using the modest career value of 12.95 AB/HR and the AB/GM since 2000 of 2.94 I was able to calculate that Bonds will hit Home Run number 756 on his 97th game of the season. Last season Barry participated in 80% of the Giants games. If we extrapolate that for the season, it is the 122nd game of the year for the Giants. That puts us all in front of our TV sets on Friday, August 17, 2007 to witness history. The big questions are will anyone actually be at Dolphin Stadium, what type of financial impact will the HR chase have on baseball during the preceding games and will the Giants get any type of return on investment for the $16 million that is owed to Bonds for the 2007 season?