How Why and When the Twins will make the Playoffs

It is 2:30 PM PDT on August 17th, and the Twins just lost a tough one to the Cleveland Indians, while the White Sox were able to manage a split with the Royals. As a result of these outcomes, the Twins fall 2 full games back in the wild card chase heading into this weekends matchup with those same White Sox. Don't fret Twins fans, your hopes are not yet squashed for a playoff birth. How can that be you ask? Ah, let me break it down for you.

Something finally clicked for the Twins on the last day of a 10-game West Coast road trip ending on June 8th that got this club on track. Since June 8th the Twins have been the best team in baseball with a 44-17 (.721) record. During that same time, the four other clubs (Tigers, White Sox, Yankees, and Red Sox)that are competing for 3 playoff spots have gone 40-20 (Detroit), 36-25 (White Sox), 35-25 (Yankees) and 35-27 (Red Sox). To stronger validate the point, using a more recent sample of won-loss trends depicts that the Twins are 23-11 (.676) since the all star break while the Tigers are 19-13 (.594), White Sox 15-17 (.469), Yankees 20-12 (.625) and Red Sox 16-17 (.485).

You are still not convinced. This is because every media outlet states that there is no way the Twins can succeed if Francisco Liriano misses time. Granted, having Liriano would make things a lot easier for the Twins, however, his 4 week abscence is not going to eliminate them from the race. Since the All Star Break while the Twins were playing .676 ball, the majority of those wins, 19 to be exact, were compiled in starts by Santana, Radke and Silva. Silva you ask? Yes, Carlos Silva. Since the All Star Break, the Twins are 6-1 in games started by Silva and an astounding 19-2 in games started by Santana, Radke and Silva. During that same period, in games started by Liriano, the 5th starter of the month or Liriano's replacement, the Twins are only 4-9. So even though the loss of Liriano will definitely hurt the Twins, the club has not been winning as frequently when he had been pitching as with Santana, Radke and Silva.

So taking into account the aforementioned trends of the Twins playing .721 ball since June 8 or even a slightly more believable .676 ball since the All Star break, I am assuming they will regress a little more and play .643 ball over their last 42 games to end with a record of 97-65. Granted they have 9 games left with the White Sox (6 in the HHH Dome), a series with the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox and A's, they also have 7 at home vs. the Royals, 6 vs. Baltimore and 3 vs. the DRays whom they have beaten 12 consecutive times. The White Sox on the other hand play a majority of their games on the road 25,compared to only 17 at home. In addition to that dramatic difference in Home/Road splits, they face the Twins 6 times, Tigers 4 times, and a series each with the Red Sox, A's and Angels on the road. They also match up 7 more times with the Indians who currently hold a 7-5 lead in the season series.

The Yankees and Red Sox will be battling out against one another 9 more times for the Eastern division title in addition to matching up with the Blue Jays multiple times. These battles will take there toll on these squads and their win/loss records thus knocking the non-division winner out of the Wild Card chase.

That covers the how and why of the Twins quest for the playoffs, but when will it actually be decided. After analyzing the upcoming matchups and analyzing the rest of the season, the Twins will take a percentage points lead in the wild card chase on Labor Day after the Twins knock off the DRays for the 13th straight time and the White Sox fall to the Red Sox at Fenway. The Twins will hold a slim lead (1-game in the loss column) all the way until Thursday September 21st when the Twins fall for the second straight night to the Red Sox in Fenway. The White Sox will hold a small percentage points lead until the Twins even things up on Thursday September 28th with a victory over the Royals leaving both the Twins and White Sox with identical records of 95-64 going into the final 3 game series in the Metrodome between the two teams. This identical record heading into the last 3 games, will guarantee that there will not be a one game playoff.

The matchups for that final series will play out like such:

Friday night: Brad Radke, pitching what possibly may be his last major league game takes his 11-2 home record since June 8th into the Metrodome vs. Mark Buehrle. The Twins jump out early and the majors top bullpen holds off the Sox for a 1-game lead in the wild card hunt.

Saturday morning/afternoon: Johan Santana puts his 2006 perfect 17-0 record in the Metrodome on the line vs. Freddy Garcia and the now desperate Chicago White Sox. In a fabulously pitched ballgame, Justin Morneau takes a Neal Cotts pitch over the hefty bag in the bottom of the 11th for a dramatic walk off and playoff clinching HR.

Sunday afternoon: Matt Garza vs. Brandon McCarthy in a game that features a bunch of young players getting some Major League action with the White Sox pulling this one out but finishing 1 game back and ending the Champs reign.

Final Standings end up this way:

AL East

1. Yankees 98-64
2. Red Sox 95-67

AL Central
1. Tigers 101-61
2. Twins 97-65
3. White Sox 96-66

AL West
1. Oakland 89-73
2. Texas 84-78
3. Angels 83-79

The World Has Lost a Great Man

On May 22, 2006 at 9:15 AM, this world lost a great man. The Better Half's father passed away after a long, hard battle with cancer at the age of 80. Dick had battled prostate cancer for the previous 15 years. Within the past 8 months, the cancer metastasized to his bones and most recently to his vital organs. During the past 6 months, Dick endured multiple medical procedures which were significantly botched by his physicians. The care he received by the hospital system was horrible. The Better Half and I made significant complaints to the personnel at the hospital to correct the inaccurate care he was receiving. The message I want to portray is that when a loved one is hospitalized, do not be afraid to confront the nursing and physician staff.

I was fortunate and I mean fortunate enough to get to know Dick over the past 10 years. Dick was a man who left school at the age of 17 to join the Navy and fight during WWII. He was a member of the special forces underwater demolition team during WWII and Korea. Upon retirement from the service, he had been shrined with multiple awards of merit which included 2 purple hearts. It was a pleasure to visit with Dick and hear the stories he lived during those difficult times. Dick was the last surviving member of his battalion, so it is sad to say the accurate depiction of those stories will never be told again.

I am most saddened at this time for the Better Half as I feel she was cheated out of a relationship with her father. Her parents divorced when she was a young girl and her mother did not allow her to see her father. It is only during the last 10 years that she has been able to enjoy a relationship with her father. They developed a beautiful relationship during that time in which they spoke to each other at least once a week. I feel Dick did his best to try and make up for lost years, but it is impossible to bring back 20 years of lost time.

Rest comfortably now Dick knowing that I will do my best to take care of your daughter. I am greatly honored to have known you and will whole heartedly miss you.

Parody and Pharmacokinetics

In today's installment of Diff's Drivel, I feel it is time to elaborate on what I have seen thus far this season.

First, has anyone else noticed the parody we are seeing (especially in the AL) so far this season. Nine of the fourteen teams in the AL are either 4-5, 5-5, or 5-4; while the top 2 AL squads (Boston and Cleveland) are only 6-3. I find that stat quite amazing. The NL is not as dramatic, but the Central is shaping up to be quite a battle with 5 teams being separated only by 1 game with the Cardinals currently the 5th place team in that division. I just hope the season continues on like this and continues to pump out fantastic games like yesterday's extra inning thriller between the young Brew Crew and the Cardinals. Carlos Lee almost single handedly gave the Brewers the victory with his combination of HR saving catch off the bat of Juan Encarnacion in the bottom of the 10th to his solo blast in the 11th. It pains me to say this, but I am starting to like this young Brewers squad.

Pharmacokinetics is one of the hottest topics in sports currently. Ranging from Bonds' potential perjury to the strict regulations and testing methods that the evil Bud Selig has implemented. I on the other hand would like to tackle an issue that I feel is affecting the game on a greater scale, amphetamines. Amphetamines, other wise known as "greenies" have been widely used by players for years, particularily by pitchers, to get more amped up before hitting the hill. It is widely thought that pitchers are ahead of hitters at the beginning of the season and that is why run production is usually down early. Not this season however. Most people thought with the scrupulous steroid testing that HR's would be down. However, just the opposite has been seen thus far. Yesterday alone, 48 home runs were hit during 15 games or a little over 3 per game. Without actually calculating the numbers, and going just off of what I have seen, it seems to me that the middle innings of games have been producing a lot more runs in the first couple weeks of the season. Red Bull, Espresso, and Soda have now become the norm in the clubhouses, but Red Bull and Soda spike your glucose levels and you have a quick high, followed by a dramatic low in your glucose levels causing you to become tired and lethargic. So as far as JD's Jabber is concerned, steroids is not the major issue in today's great game, it is the stimulants the players were using to stay amped up.

Inaugural Post

I have finally gotten around to creating a blog allowing me to discuss idle banter regarding sports (predominantly baseball) and happenings in the Pacific Northwest. Today is the first posting of what I hope is a daily venture expounding on the great game. This will include discussions on recent games, upcoming games, and my gambling picks to click. In regards to the picks to click, a running tally will be kept of winnings (or losses) occurred.

In addition to the baseball banter, I will highlight the goings on in the life of the better half and I as we forge through life in the great Pacific Northwest.

Welcome, and I hope you enjoy my drivel.