New Addiction

Wow! is all I can say about the newest Fantasy Game to hit the market. Rotohog is a new form of fantasy baseball that takes player statistics and player values into account. For the ultimate fantasy player that loves to wheel and deal, this is the game for you. For individuals who have ever wanted to be a day trader on wall street, here is your chance to do it in a baseball forum.

As long as your budget allows (changes continuously) and you fill 15 specific roster spots, you can buy any player you would like. There is one exception, players are limited to one for every twelve owners. In layman's terms, that means if there are 1444 people in the league, 122 owners will be allowed to own that specific player.

Statistics are the overall determinant of who wins. By continually managing your roster (buying low and selling high) it will allow you to purchase higher valued players, which in the long run should produce better statistics.

The key to winning the $100,000 grand prize is to manage your roster and get the best value out of your squad. Rotohog is not a game for the casual fan. This game gives me and other die hard fantasy and baseball fans a reason to follow what is going to be a tremendous 7-months of baseball.

Dome Field Advantage?

Numerous media outlets tout Johan Santana as the best pitcher in Major League Baseball. A well deserving honor for the recipient of two of the last three Cy Young awards, but what is not as widely discussed is his home/road splits. Since his last loss (2-1 vs. Oakland) in the Metrodome on August 1, 2005, Santana has started 23 games in the dome. Those 23 starts resulted in a record of 16 wins, 0 losses and 7 no decisions. In addition to Johan not recording a personal loss, all 7 of those no decisions resulted in Twins victories. During those 23 games, opponents were held to a mere 52 runs or 2.3/game. The Twins offense did not sit back and watch on those nights. They put up 122 runs over that period or 5.3/game. In short, heading into the opener on Monday, the Twins have won the last 23 regular season games Santana has started, holding opponents to just over 2 runs while scoring over 5. Not good news for Baltimore Orioles fans.

Away from the dome Santana is a mere mortal however compiling 9 wins, 7 losses and 6 no decisions. To Johan's credit he kept the Twins in the game during those no decisions allowing the Twins to prevail in four of them. This equates to a .591 winning perentage on the road for the Twins in Santana starts. A .591 road winning percentage is not at all horrible, but is it good enough for the guy who is being called the best pitcher in baseball?

What can be taken from this:

1. Teams coming into the Dome when Santana is on the bump should pretty much mail it in.

2. Twins management need to structure the rotation so Santana gets more starts in the Dome. Current season schedule does not set up this way. If the schedule goes as planned (no postponements) Johan will start 15 games in the Dome and 21 on the road.

3. GM Terry Ryan needs to evaluate if it is a dome field advantage or home field advantage before the Twins lock up Santana counting on him to continue his dominance in the outdoor stadium in 2010.

They are all Equal (NL)

In the continuation of team predictions and synopses, today we look at the National League. It is widely thought that the American League is the stronger league, I won't disagree, but in my opinion, the National League consists of more team parody. This will be quite noticeable in the prediction breakdowns.

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
Pitching depth and quality hitting lead Phillies to AL East crown

New York Mets (86-76)
Early season pitching woes hinder offensive firepower. Reyes blows hamstring knocking Mets from the top of the East. Pedro arrives in August to surge a playoff push but come up just short.

Atlanta Braves (83-79)
Great mix of veterans and youth keep Cox and the Braves in the playoff picture

Florida Marlins (76-86)
Sophomore slumps everywhere. Hermida displays talent everyone expected during second half. Management ships out D-Train at the trade deadline.

Washington Nationals (62-100)
With the worst pitching in baseball, the only reason to watch the Nationals is Ryan Zimmerman.


National League Central

Chicago Cubs (85-77)
Sweet Lou pulls off the unthinkable and takes Cubbies from worst to first in the NL Central with some help from the batting champ (Lee), MVP (Soriano), and Cy Young (Zambrano)

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
Young pitching breaks out (Wainwright and Reyes)bolstering rotation, but key offensive injuries (Edmonds, Encarnacion, Eckstein) erase the Champs chance to repeat.

Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
Everyone's sleeper division winner is still one year away.

Houston Astros (80-82)
Biggio gets his 3000th hit and Hunter Pence makes an appearance bolstering an Astros late season playoff push.

Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)
Pirates re-building with pitching and they are good. Ian Snell will outperform Zach Duke in 2007 and beyond, however, they both will be very good.

Cincinnati Reds (75-87)
Arroyo and Harang regress and injuries continue to hamper the offense. Reds slip to the cellar leading to an overhaul.


National League West

San Diego Padres (87-75)
Best pitching staff in the National League and consistent hitting allow the Padres to return to the playoffs.

Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76)
Second best pitching staff in National League and a young offense with a lot of talent keeps this race close and a playoff appearance within grasp.

Colorado Rockies (80-82)
Helton (aka Superman) and new Blake Street Bombers (Atkins, Holliday, Hawpe/Baker) put butts back into the seats at Coors.

Los Angeles Dodgers (79-83)
Horrible offseason movement bringing in aging veterans drops the Blue out of contention before they wake up and play the kids (Loney, Kemp, Billingsley and Broxton)

San Francisco Giants (78-84)
Even though the Giants are going to be horrible, there is that guy named Bonds, Barry Bonds who will become the HR King. In addition to the Bonds watch, Matt Cain is a very good young pitcher who will anchor this staff for years to come. Once Sabean realizes that Armando Benitez is not a quality closer, the emergence of a new cult hero will arrive in the Bay....Tim Lincecum.


The National League also has milestones and records of its own that will keep us following the boys of summer over the next six months. Tom Glavine wins his 300th game in August, Trevor Hoffman saves his 500th game prior to the All Star Game, Craig Biggio collects his 3000 hit on the 4th of July, and the greatest record of them all Barry Bonds' 755 HR chase comes to fruition on August 17th in Florida in front of the only regular season sell out crowd for the Marlins.

Everyone Starts in First Place (AL)

With the start of the 2007 Major League Baseball (MLB) season a mere 96 hours away, every team is still currently tied for first place in their respective divisions and leagues. However, that will not be the case come Tuesday. Even though teams are not mathematically eliminated Tuesday, there is a very good possibility that some teams will not be partaking in post season play. Regardless of that, every major league club has a reason you should watch them this season, making this one of the most exciting years MLB has seen. I have broken my synopsis up by league and division and ordered it by my predicted finish and won-loss records. Today's Drivel will start with the American League

American League East

Boston Red Sox (96-66)
Matsuzaka Mania leads the Red Sox to another AL East championship

New York Yankees (92-70)
ARod and Jeter coexist leading Yankees to another playoff appearance

Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
Roy Halladay suffers arm injury and needs Tommy John Surgery

Baltimore Orioles (75-87)
Young starting pitchers (Cabrera, Bedard, Loewen) take big step forward but bullpen collapses

Tampa Bay Devil Rays (73-89)
Lack of pitching causes clashes between offensive stars and management


American League Central

Cleveland Indians (89-73)
Revamped bullpen reverses last years misfortunes

Minnesota Twins (88-74)
2006 revisited: Ponson and Silva out Garza and Perkins in. Reversal of fortune as Twins lose division on last day in Boston

Detroit Tigers (88-74)
Tiger Lefties (Rogers, Robertson, Maroth) don't carry their weight

Chicago White Sox (77-85)
Collapses by Dye, Buehrle, Garland and the bullpen leave Ozzie offering some of the seasons best quotes

Kansas City Royals (66-96)
Young Royals (Gordon, Teahen, Shealy, Butler, and Greinke) look like the start of something good


American League West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (84-78)
American Leagues best rotation including a healthy Bartolo Colon lead Angels back to playoffs

Texas Rangers (81-81)
Offense and bullpen keep Rangers in the hunt up until the final week

Oakland Athletics (81-81)
After 19 spectacular starts Rich Harden goes under the knife ending the A's playoff hopes

Seattle Mariners (73-89)
Mariners start off slowly leading to the shipping away of several veterans and eventual firing of Bill Bavasi

There are several milestones that will also be surpassed this season in the American League. 500 HR's will be obtained this season by Frank Thomas (487), Jim Thome (472), Manny Ramirez(470), and Alex Rodriguez (464). Mike Mussina currently sits with 239 wins and should obtain his 250th sometime in late July or early August. Yankee teammate Andy Pettite who has amassed 186 wins over his 12 major league seasons should win number 200 in early September. So as one can see, it is going to be a very interesting 6-months culminating with the Red Sox finishing off the Tribe in six games sending Sox fans into hysteria.

When Does Barry Surpass Hammerin' Hank

I have been researching this subject for the last few weeks and going back and forth between will he or won't he do it? My initial feelings were that with the weak SF Giants lineup (leading to Barry breaking the walks and intentional walks records) and Barry's recent injury history, that he will not succeed in passing Hank Aaron and become the All Time Home Run Champion. I am not alone in this feeling as PECOTA projects Barry to hit only 18 HR's during the 2007 season. ESPN Baseball Contributors weighed in on the topic also. As you can see from the article 4 of the 14 writers stated they felt Bonds would not accrue 22 HR's this season. My feelings felt more validated when I saw I was not alone. I then went back to my research and crunched some numbers and came up with the inevitable that, Barry will break the HR record on August 17, 2007 in Florida vs. the Marlins.

After looking at numerous items, the valid points were games played, at bats per home run(AB/HR), home run pct(HR%), at bats per game (AB/GM), and walks. Bonds' first full major league season was 1987 and since that season, there have only been three seasons in which he has not participated in 130 games. The three seasons Bonds did not partake in more than 130 games was the strike season of 1994, the torn triceps tendon injury in 1999 and the knee surgery of 2005. So as much discussion as there has been about his fragility; over his career Bonds has played in 85% of the games in his career and 76% since 2000. The following table addresses the next variables of interest AB/HR and HR%.

Year		AB/HR		HR%
2000		9.8		10.21
2001		6.5		15.34
2002		8.8		12.06
2003		8.7		11.54
2004		8.3		11.41
2005		8.4		11.90
2006		14.1		7.08
Career		12.9		7.72

What this table cleary shows us is that over his 21 year career, Barry homered 1 in every 13 ABs and since 2000, that number is significantly lower.

Over his career, Bonds has averaged 3.3 AB/GM. Since 2000, Bonds has participated in 860 games accumulating 2531 at bats which translates to 2.94 AB/GM. During that seven year span, Bonds averaged 362 AB/season hitting 289 Home Runs or 1 every 8.76 AB. How do all these numbers give us the date? I used the following formula [(AB/HR x HR needed)/(AB/GM)] to calculate the game that the event will occur. By using the modest career value of 12.95 AB/HR and the AB/GM since 2000 of 2.94 I was able to calculate that Bonds will hit Home Run number 756 on his 97th game of the season. Last season Barry participated in 80% of the Giants games. If we extrapolate that for the season, it is the 122nd game of the year for the Giants. That puts us all in front of our TV sets on Friday, August 17, 2007 to witness history. The big questions are will anyone actually be at Dolphin Stadium, what type of financial impact will the HR chase have on baseball during the preceding games and will the Giants get any type of return on investment for the $16 million that is owed to Bonds for the 2007 season?

Interview with Minnesota Twins GM, Terry Ryan

I was fortunate to be able to sit down and talk with one of the most respected men in the game of baseball while I attended Spring Training in Florida a few weeks back. In addition to the graciousness of the Twins organization, the Editor and President of the Biz of Baseball, Maury Brown has accepted the interview and published it on his fine site. Not only was this quite an honor to an upstart freelance writer, but I was offered a position with the site to submit future information. I greatly appreciate Mr. Brown's interest in my writing and hope to be able to better an already fabulous site with my musings. Here is a link to the interview with Mr. Ryan Please check it out and enjoy the Biz of Baseball site.