Something finally clicked for the Twins on the last day of a 10-game West Coast road trip ending on June 8th that got this club on track. Since June 8th the Twins have been the best team in baseball with a 44-17 (.721) record. During that same time, the four other clubs (Tigers, White Sox, Yankees, and Red Sox)that are competing for 3 playoff spots have gone 40-20 (Detroit), 36-25 (White Sox), 35-25 (Yankees) and 35-27 (Red Sox). To stronger validate the point, using a more recent sample of won-loss trends depicts that the Twins are 23-11 (.676) since the all star break while the Tigers are 19-13 (.594), White Sox 15-17 (.469), Yankees 20-12 (.625) and Red Sox 16-17 (.485).
You are still not convinced. This is because every media outlet states that there is no way the Twins can succeed if Francisco Liriano misses time. Granted, having Liriano would make things a lot easier for the Twins, however, his 4 week abscence is not going to eliminate them from the race. Since the All Star Break while the Twins were playing .676 ball, the majority of those wins, 19 to be exact, were compiled in starts by Santana, Radke and Silva. Silva you ask? Yes, Carlos Silva. Since the All Star Break, the Twins are 6-1 in games started by Silva and an astounding 19-2 in games started by Santana, Radke and Silva. During that same period, in games started by Liriano, the 5th starter of the month or Liriano's replacement, the Twins are only 4-9. So even though the loss of Liriano will definitely hurt the Twins, the club has not been winning as frequently when he had been pitching as with Santana, Radke and Silva.
So taking into account the aforementioned trends of the Twins playing .721 ball since June 8 or even a slightly more believable .676 ball since the All Star break, I am assuming they will regress a little more and play .643 ball over their last 42 games to end with a record of 97-65. Granted they have 9 games left with the White Sox (6 in the HHH Dome), a series with the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox and A's, they also have 7 at home vs. the Royals, 6 vs. Baltimore and 3 vs. the DRays whom they have beaten 12 consecutive times. The White Sox on the other hand play a majority of their games on the road 25,compared to only 17 at home. In addition to that dramatic difference in Home/Road splits, they face the Twins 6 times, Tigers 4 times, and a series each with the Red Sox, A's and Angels on the road. They also match up 7 more times with the Indians who currently hold a 7-5 lead in the season series.
The Yankees and Red Sox will be battling out against one another 9 more times for the Eastern division title in addition to matching up with the Blue Jays multiple times. These battles will take there toll on these squads and their win/loss records thus knocking the non-division winner out of the Wild Card chase.
That covers the how and why of the Twins quest for the playoffs, but when will it actually be decided. After analyzing the upcoming matchups and analyzing the rest of the season, the Twins will take a percentage points lead in the wild card chase on Labor Day after the Twins knock off the DRays for the 13th straight time and the White Sox fall to the Red Sox at Fenway. The Twins will hold a slim lead (1-game in the loss column) all the way until Thursday September 21st when the Twins fall for the second straight night to the Red Sox in Fenway. The White Sox will hold a small percentage points lead until the Twins even things up on Thursday September 28th with a victory over the Royals leaving both the Twins and White Sox with identical records of 95-64 going into the final 3 game series in the Metrodome between the two teams. This identical record heading into the last 3 games, will guarantee that there will not be a one game playoff.
The matchups for that final series will play out like such:
Friday night: Brad Radke, pitching what possibly may be his last major league game takes his 11-2 home record since June 8th into the Metrodome vs. Mark Buehrle. The Twins jump out early and the majors top bullpen holds off the Sox for a 1-game lead in the wild card hunt.
Saturday morning/afternoon: Johan Santana puts his 2006 perfect 17-0 record in the Metrodome on the line vs. Freddy Garcia and the now desperate Chicago White Sox. In a fabulously pitched ballgame, Justin Morneau takes a Neal Cotts pitch over the hefty bag in the bottom of the 11th for a dramatic walk off and playoff clinching HR.
Sunday afternoon: Matt Garza vs. Brandon McCarthy in a game that features a bunch of young players getting some Major League action with the White Sox pulling this one out but finishing 1 game back and ending the Champs reign.
Final Standings end up this way:
AL East
1. Yankees 98-64
2. Red Sox 95-67
AL Central
1. Tigers 101-61
2. Twins 97-65
3. White Sox 96-66
AL West
1. Oakland 89-73
2. Texas 84-78
3. Angels 83-79
2. Red Sox 95-67
AL Central
1. Tigers 101-61
2. Twins 97-65
3. White Sox 96-66
AL West
1. Oakland 89-73
2. Texas 84-78
3. Angels 83-79
